10 years of Jong-un Kim...Could be ‘Kim Xiaoping’?

This is the 10th year since North Korean leader Jong-un Kim came to power. As Chairman Jong-il Kim died of a myocardial infarction on December 17, 2011, his eldest son, Chairman Jong-un Kim assumed the supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army on December 30, 13 days later. He was born in 1984, so he was 27 years old at the time.

Jong-il Kim became supreme leader after the death of his father, Il-sung Kim, at 52, so Chairman Jong-un Kim was too early at the earliest. From now on, I would like to summarize the 10 years of Jong-un Kim and look forward to his future.

Seized power by quickly eliminating political enemies

The ‘27-year-old leader’ slowly and hastily began to seize power in fear. He had to get rid of a political enemy who ignored him for being young or who pretended to be loyal on the outside but looked down on him on the inside. First on the list of people to be removed was Yong-ho Lee, Chief of the General Staff of the North Korean People’s Army. The Chief of the General Staff is the equivalent of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in South Korea and has the de facto authority over military operations. Since the military is always a potential challenger, Chairman Kim had no choice but to make changes.

It is known that Young-ho Lee was purged in July 2012 after showing a negative attitude to handing over the military’s economic power to the private sector. Young-cheol Hyun, who was appointed as Young-ho Lee’s successor, was dismissed in May 2013 after less than a year. Gyeok-sik Kim, who was next appointed as the Chief of the General Staff, was dismissed after only three months. Chairman Kim controlled the military leadership through frequent personnel appointments.

The replacement of the head of the People’s Armed Forces (now Minister of National Defense), who oversees the administration of the North Korean People’s Army, was more dramatic. In the 10 years since Chairman Kim came to power, he has replaced nine people, including Kim Young-chun, Kim Jeong-gak, Kim Gyeok-shik, Jang Jeong-nam, Hyun Young-cheol, Park Young-sik, Noh Kwang-cheol, Kim Jeong-gwan, and Lee Young-gil. During the 46 years of his grandfather Il-sung Kim’s reign, five people held the position, and during the 17 years of his father, Jong-Il Kim’s reign, there were only three.

This shows the difference in personality between Jong-il Kim and Jong-un Kim. Jong-il Kim, who was a movie buff, went to the end without changing the main character in the middle like in a movie, but Jong-un Kim, who is a basketball fanatic, changes players as often as in a basketball game.

The highlight of removal of the political enemy was his uncle ‘Sung-Taek Jang’, who served as the second influential figure in the regime. It was the event that made Chairman Kim’s rule of terror known to the world. Seong-taek Jang was the son-in-law of Il-sung Kim and the brother-in-law of Jong-il Kim, who shared his destiny with the Kim dynasty. In particular, whenever North Korea gradually opened its doors to reform and opening up, he played a leading role. His works was representative of the installation of the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region.

Once raised the expectation to become ‘Kim Xiaoping’

So it was expected that Jang would take good care of the “27-year-old leader” and lead a new North Korea that is different from the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il regimes He predicted that a ‘wind of change’ would arise in North Korea, like the Chinese method or the Vietnamese method. But The power was neither beautiful nor elegant. In the fight against the forces that tried to contain him, he dealt with ease. The halo of Kim Il-sung and Jong-il Kim had made him conceited.

Chairman Kim’s judgment was clouded by the advice of the forces trying to get rid of Song-thaek Jang. Some said that on the day Song-thaek Jang had been executed (December 12, 2013), Chairman Kim secretly had wept. It was said that Kim Jong-il had praised Jang Song-thaek’s talent and even instructed Chairman Kim not to kill Jang until he turned 40. Until then, he had predicted that Sung-taek Jang would be needed.

After completing the “sword dance of the purge” in that way, Chairman Kim(Jong-un Kim) had completely seized power in North Korea. Then he turned to revive the North Korea economy. On May 30, 2014, he gave the business a great deal of autonomy through a discourse. He intended to introduce a “socialist corporate responsibility management system” to give companies autonomy while at the same time hold them accountable. The autonomy he mentioned was 10, including the right to plan, the right to organize production, the right to develop products, the right to manage human resources, and the right to set prices.

But when he suddenly gave his autonomy to companies, it seemed that companies would like autonomy, but the reality was not. It was rather painful for those in charge who lacked the experience and ability to have autonomy. North Korea has been currently in a transition period for autonomy.

In addition to sanctions against North Korea and COVID-19 lockdown, North Korea’s economy has been fading contrary to expectations despite the grant of autonomy. Although it has survived by upgrading the self-reliance that has been advocated since 1961, in other words, it faced the greatest crisis since the founding of the country in 1948. On April 15, 2012, during a parade commemorating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Il-sung Kim, Chairman Kim promised that his people would never tighten their belts again. But he has yet to keep his promise.

Looking back over the past decade of Jong-un Kim, there have been many major events such as four nuclear tests, the North Korea-U.S. summit, and the inter-Korean summit. Among them, the summit between the U.S. and North Korea received the most attention from the world. Chairman Kim accomplished what Il-sung Kim and Jong-il Kim had never dreamed of. Finally, the world expected that a spring of peace would come on the Korean Peninsula. Most conservatives in South Korea also applauded Chairman Kim’s decision. That was the denuclearization of North Korea and the summit between the US and North Korea. They thought that something they had dreamed of for a long time would come true before their eyes. However, it was blocked by the long-standing wall of distrust between North Korea and the United States, and it returned to the origin of their conflicts.

Chairman Kim had wanted to be ‘North Korea’s Deng Xiaoping’ in the early days of his reign. Although he did not speak publicly, North Korean officials abroad had propagated it. For this reason, European journalists also called Chairman Kim “Kim Xiaoping.” Chairman Kim showed such a willingness to open up in the years following his reign. So officials knew that he could establish diplomatic ties with North America like Deng Xiaoping.

I hope next year to win through ‘North Korea-US dialogue’

However, as time passed, he was forced to reveal his limitations. After the failure of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in 2019, he began to be evaluated as an indecisive person like ‘Hamlet’. Was it because of his lack of skill? The image of him who was proud of his former self can no longer be found. He fell into a state of being surrounded by enemies or in a state of isolation where he cannot get help from anyone. He has stuck with three difficulties: sanctions against North Korea + Covid 19 + economic crisis. His 10 years are 70% success and 30% failure.

I think he has to go back to his first thoughts the more difficult it gets. He has to prepare again and talk to the United States. There is no other way than that. Even Deng Xiaoping did not have perfect conditions to establish diplomatic ties between the United States and China. Deng Xiaoping had no choice but to go to Washington, where he could not settle the Taiwan issue as he wanted. Because that’s why he couldn’t gain little and lose big. If Chairman Kim is to become “Kim Xiaoping,” he must learn this kind of guts and courage.

In politics, timing is very important. The Biden administration has knocked on his empire several times to talk to him. It may not be an offer to his liking. But if he tries to think about the future of North Korea 10 years from now, he has to accept it. That is the only way to go beyond ‘Il-sung kim and Jong-il Kim’.